We received this email from the UN's Horn of Africa rep.--it offers a good perspective on Nuba's unique geopolitical situation.
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KAUDA, 12 November 2009 (IRIN) - The Nuba Mountains, a former
frontline region in Sudan's north-south civil war remain tense, years
after the 2005 north-south peace agreement, local leaders and analysts
say.
Comprising some 48,000sqkm of green uplands and farmland, the area is
part of northern Sudan's Southern Kordofan State, but as during the
war, remains politically dominated by the southern-led Sudan People's
Liberation Movement (SPLM).
Tensions and mistrust have remained high between Sudan's north and
south - major political, ideological and religious differences are
unresolved - not least in the Nuba region.
"Security is a big problem, with violations and hostility between two
parties - the SPLM and the NCP [National Congress Party], and a lot of
conflict between tribes," said Kamal al-Nur, commissioner of
SPLM-controlled Heiban County in Southern Kordofan.
"We are concerned that violence will escalate as we come closer to
the elections - and in the period after the elections - to the
referendum," al-Nur added. General elections in Sudan are slated for
April 2010, before a southern independence referendum in 2011.
During the war, the Nuba population suffered aerial bombardment,
isolation, shortages, land expropriation and forced population
movements, according to international human rights groups.
The area is characterized by a mix of ethnic groups and coexistence
between Muslim, Christian and traditional believers.
"We fought for long years. for equality, for the right to live as we
want and not under the [Islamic] Sharia law of the north," said Younan
Albaround, the SPLM chairman in Kauda, the party's former headquarters
for Nuba during the war.
"Popular consultation"
Unlike Southern Sudan and the oil-rich region of Abyei which are due
to vote on independence and self-determination in 2011, the 2005 peace
deal only set out arrangements for interim power sharing and "popular
consultation" in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states.
Abyei, Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile are sometimes referred to as
Sudan's "three areas" - transitional and contested-zones straddling
the north-south political, military and cultural fault lines.
"Whilst the South and Abyei have clearly defined rights to an
independence referendum - guaranteed by the presence of the SPLA and
thus with the option of unilateral secession should the peace deal
fail to be fully implemented - the two `contested areas' are only
given the ill-defined concept of `popular consultation' on their
future status," said Peter Moszynski, a Sudan analyst who began
working in the Nuba region in 1981.
The SPLA's ranks in the Nuba mountains were largely filled by local
people, but those forces have officially pulled out of the region
under terms set down by the peace agreement, with only special joint
north-south units remaining.
Tensions have also risen following recent comments by senior Southern
Sudanese officials in favour of separation, including a speech by the
Southern president, Salva Kiir, that voting for unity would make
southerners "second class" citizens.
"The Nuba people fear the breakaway of the south because they will be
left as an isolated minority in the north - and will also be on the
frontline of any future north-south conflict," Moszynski said.
"There are huge concerns that the Nuba Mountains could return to
fighting," said Sudan analyst, John Ashworth. "They have no
referendums - but many ordinary people are not aware of that yet and
will be angry when it finally dawns on them. The `popular
consultation' is vague and probably meaningless."
A public opinion study by the Washington-based National Democratic
Institute (NDI) found people saw few positive outcomes for the future.
"Participants report that there is persistent, and potentially
explosive, conflict in Southern Kordofan," the March 2009 study
entitled Losing Hope noted.
In ethnic terms, the people of the Nuba Mountains usually identify
more closely with the "African" southerners than their northern Arab
neighbours.
"They describe the conflict as a fight over land and grazing rights.
The Nuba argue that Arabs are armed [while the Nuba are not], that
Arab traditional leaders are not neutral, and that the central
government is behind much of the violence," it added.
"Arab participants say that it is the Nuba who are the instigators,
and that they are responsible for the violence and theft in the
region."
Few, the study found, were optimistic for the future: "The scale of
the current conflict in Southern Kordofan is such that many
participants believe the state is close to a return to general,
state-wide war."
Similar sentiments were echoed by the International Crisis Group
(ICG) in October 2008, in a report on Southern Kordofan entitled The
Next Darfur?
"If the NCP, SPLM and international community fail to pay the
required attention to the divided region," the ICG warned, "their
inaction could come back to haunt them in a way that threatens the
stability of the already divided country."
END
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John Ashworth
Regional Representative
IKV Pax Christi Horn of Africa Programme